A 股港股冰火两重天？大摩解读三大分化原因

Core Insights - Despite a bleak macroeconomic backdrop, investor sentiment towards the Chinese market has improved, leading to increased allocation intentions, particularly in the technology and new consumption sectors [1] Group 1: Investor Consensus - Global diversification demand is driving an increase in interest for Chinese stock allocations, with global investors expressing a desire to increase exposure to the Chinese market [2] - The investability of the Chinese market is gradually improving, with a particular focus on new consumption themes and artificial intelligence [2] Group 2: Market Performance Discrepancies - The A-share market has significantly underperformed compared to the Hong Kong market and overseas Chinese stocks, with the CSI 300 index down 1.5% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Index and MSCI China Index are up 19% and 16% respectively [4] - Three main factors contribute to the performance divergence between domestic and overseas markets: 1. More opportunities related to artificial intelligence and new consumption are concentrated in the Hong Kong market, with many high-quality A-share companies opting for dual listings in Hong Kong [4] 2. Significant differences in industry composition between the two markets, with high-quality, high ROE companies dominating the MSCI China Index [4] 3. Limited liquidity support from state-owned entities for the A-share market at current index levels [5] Group 3: Currency Outlook - Morgan Stanley has shifted its view on the RMB against the USD, predicting a mild appreciation of the RMB to 7.05 by the end of 2026, despite challenges such as higher tariffs [5] Group 4: Investor Concerns - Ongoing deflationary pressures are expected to deter investors, with predictions of continued deflation until at least 2027 [6] - Concerns regarding high valuations in the technology and new consumption sectors, suggesting a balanced approach to achieve excess returns while maintaining exposure to high dividend stocks for stable cash returns [6]