2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-06-11 04:30Group 1 - The core theme of the conference held by Shenwan Hongyuan is "The Heroic Nature Revealed in Turbulent Times," focusing on various market concerns including asset allocation, AI, financial innovation, and new consumption trends [1] - The conference aims to create an open dialogue platform for regulatory bodies and market institutions, and to generate actionable suggestions to enhance the vitality of the capital market [1] - Current global political and economic restructuring is identified as a critical moment, alongside the transition from the 14th Five-Year Plan to the 15th [1] Group 2 - The trend of capital accumulation in the US market since 2020 is showing signs of reversal, with significant capital outflows towards markets like Germany and Hong Kong [3][4] - China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, with signs of stabilization in the real estate market and a reduction in debt risks [4] - Foreign investment banks have raised their economic growth forecasts for China, suggesting an "overweight" position on Chinese equities [5] Group 3 - External shocks are viewed as accelerators for China's economic transformation, with a notable decrease in the export share to the US [7] - The service sector and consumer spending are expected to strengthen in the second half of the year, potentially offsetting pressures from the manufacturing sector [7] - The A-share market is seen as having the potential for a bull market, driven by declining risk-free rates and improvements in financing functions [8] Group 4 - The anticipated bull market is likely to be characterized as a "slow bull" unique to China, with Hong Kong stocks expected to lead the market [8][9] - The market is projected to improve in 2026, with the bull market expected to unfold between 2026 and 2027, while the fourth quarter of 2025 may reflect improvements in the mid-term fundamentals [9] - Key investment themes include AI, defense, and new consumption sectors, with a focus on software, hardware technologies, and emerging consumer trends [9]