Core Viewpoint - The livestock industry, particularly pig farming, is experiencing a positive outlook, supported by stable fundamentals and favorable regulatory signals aimed at reducing speculation and stabilizing prices [1][4]. Company Summary - Dekang Agriculture (德康农牧) has shown significant growth, with projected revenue for 2024 increasing by 39% to 22.5 billion RMB, and net profit turning positive at over 4.2 billion RMB [2][3]. - The company’s pig output is expected to rise by 24% in 2024, reaching 8.78 million pigs, with an average selling price of approximately 16.7 RMB per kilogram, leading to a per-head profit of around 360-370 RMB, positioning it among the industry leaders [2][3]. - Dekang's breeding advantages, particularly the E-series boars, have contributed to reduced costs, with total costs estimated at around 12.5 RMB per kilogram, and further optimization is anticipated as the company expands into new markets [3][4]. Industry Perspective - The pig farming sector has benefited from previous capacity reductions, leading to favorable pricing conditions that support profitability [2]. - Recent regulatory signals are expected to favor companies like Dekang that adopt a service-oriented model, enhancing farmer incomes while maintaining efficiency and fairness in the industry [4]. - The overall capital expenditure in the industry is stabilizing, and the shift towards healthy competition is likely to benefit cost-efficient companies like Dekang in the long term [4].
行业拐点更趋清晰，头均盈利领跑的德康农牧（02419）确定性更强