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Core Viewpoint - The lithium market is experiencing significant fluctuations in supply and demand dynamics, leading to a downward trend in lithium prices, with expectations of continued pressure in the second half of 2025 [3][5][9]. Supply - At least 30% of lithium mines are currently operating at a cash loss, yet no major mines have exited the market in the first half of 2025, indicating a failure of cost support [5] - Global lithium resource supply is expected to grow by approximately 17% in 2025, remaining consistent with the end of last year’s statistics [5] - Domestic lithium carbonate production is projected to increase by about 40% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while imports are expected to rise by around 12% [5] - Domestic lithium carbonate inventory increased by approximately 22.2% in the first five months, indicating significant supply surplus pressure [5] Demand - The demand for lithium showed strong performance in the first half of 2025, with global electric vehicle sales increasing by 28.6% year-on-year and domestic sales rising by 46.2% [9] - The production of power and other batteries in China reached 444.6 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 67.1% [9] - Despite optimistic demand in the first half, macroeconomic expectations have weakened, leading to a downward revision of demand forecasts for the second half of 2025 [9] - Potential adjustments to domestic electric vehicle purchase tax policies may pose significant pressure on electric vehicle demand growth in 2026 [9] Strategy - It is recommended for holders to sell deep out-of-the-money call options or to wait for a lack of rebound before establishing short positions to lock in sales prices [12] - Midstream companies should pay attention to the impact of price rebounds and declines on inventory profits and losses [12] - Speculative funds are advised to approach bottom-fishing cautiously [12]