Morgan Stanley(US:MS) 智通财经网·2025-06-11 05:57Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook on US dollar assets, recommending investors to overweight US stocks, US Treasuries, and US investment-grade corporate credit, while expressing a bearish view on the US dollar due to narrowing economic growth and yield differentials with other countries [1][4]. Economic Forecasts - The forecast for the S&P 500 index is set at 6,000 for June 2025, with a range of 4,900 in a bear scenario and 7,200 in a bull scenario by Q2 2026 [2]. - Global GDP growth is expected to decline from 3.5% in Q4 2024 to 2.5% in 2025, with US GDP growth slowing from 2.5% to 1.0% over the same period [3][8]. Asset Class Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on high-quality cyclical stocks and large-cap defensive stocks in the US, while in Europe, sectors such as defense, banking, software, telecommunications, and diversified finance are recommended for overweighting [5]. - Emerging markets should focus on financial sectors and companies with strong profitability, favoring domestic businesses over export-oriented firms [5]. Currency and Interest Rate Outlook - The US dollar index (DXY) is projected to decline by 9% to 91 by mid-2026, influenced by converging US interest rates and economic growth with other countries [9]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield is expected to drop to 4.00% by the end of 2025, with the Federal Reserve anticipated to cut rates by 175 basis points in 2026 [9][10]. Commodity Market Insights - Oil prices are expected to face downward pressure due to potential supply increases, with Brent crude projected to fall to the low $50 range by mid-2026 [11]. - Gold is favored as a safe-haven asset, supported by strong central bank demand and ETF inflows, while industrial metals may face downward price risks due to potential economic slowdowns [12].