箱体震荡持续收窄，半导体现在还能埋伏吗？

Group 1 - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a complex market rotation, with significant liquidity being siphoned off to small-cap stocks and financial sectors, leading to a decline in major semiconductor stocks like Haiguang Information [1][4] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for the semiconductor industry remains positive, supported by strong demand and growth forecasts [4][6] - The global semiconductor sales forecast for 2025 has been raised from $697.2 billion to $700.9 billion, indicating an 11.2% year-on-year growth, with further growth expected in 2026 [4] Group 2 - Semiconductor equipment and materials have the lowest PE ratios since 2019, indicating a more significant adjustment compared to other segments, making them attractive for investment [6][9] - The upcoming index rebalancing for the semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) will increase the weight of equipment and materials to over 70%, enhancing its representation of the sector [9][10] - The focus on domestic substitution in semiconductor equipment and materials is expected to accelerate, driven by ongoing geopolitical pressures and the need for technological independence [6][9]