Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Jin Tou Wang·2025-06-11 06:07Core Viewpoint - The coal futures market in China is showing a predominantly positive trend, particularly in the coking coal sector, with fluctuations in prices and varying opinions on future performance from different institutions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Coking coal futures opened at 1345.0 CNY/ton, with a peak of 1365.5 CNY and a low of 1339.0 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.31% [1]. - The overall performance of coking coal is characterized by a strong upward trend, despite some pressures from supply and demand dynamics [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Guosen Futures noted that the average losses for coking enterprises have slightly increased due to three rounds of price reductions, with a small decline in operating rates and a decrease in supply [1]. - Demand is weak as steel mills reduce production during the off-season, leading to a slight decrease in iron output, which has resulted in an accumulation of coking coal inventory [1]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - Nanhua Futures indicated that the recent improvement in US-China relations has positively influenced market sentiment, leading to a rebound in coking coal prices, although the rebound in coking coal is weaker due to downstream price reductions [2]. - Guosen Futures also highlighted that the current cost of coking coal is between 780-800 CNY, while the cost for coking coal after three rounds of price reductions is between 1310-1330 CNY, indicating a basic recovery in price differentials [2]. - The overall supply of carbon elements remains ample, and the stable iron output above 241 suggests that there is still some support for coal and coke demand [2].