大华银行：预计短期内美元兑港元仍将徘徊于上限附近

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite recent fluctuations in exchange rates, if liquidity in Hong Kong remains ample, the USD/HKD exchange rate is expected to hover near the upper limit in the short term, with forecasts for Q3 2025 to Q2 2026 being 7.84, 7.82, 7.80, and 7.80 respectively [1] - Factors such as monetary policy considerations and the reallocation of assets away from the US are seen as bearish for the dollar, with the former expected to gradually take precedence over the latter, potentially slowing the pace of dollar depreciation [1] - The bank maintains a downward trend for the dollar index, with the latest forecasts being 98.4 by the end of 2025 and 96.5 by the end of Q2 2026 [1] Group 2 - As tariff risks diminish, market focus is expected to shift back to monetary policy, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will implement three rate cuts of 25 basis points each in September, October, and December [2] - The bank anticipates that after a 9-month pause in rate hikes, the Federal Reserve will restart its easing cycle, while other G10 central banks will gradually end their easing policies, which will help narrow the dollar interest rate spread and exert downward pressure on the dollar [2]