格隆汇1月9日｜大华银行全球经济与市场研究部的三名成员在研究报告中表示，全球地缘政治风险上 升，进一步强化了对避险对冲工具的需求。报告指出，黄金是事实上的全球避险资产。鉴于委内瑞拉相 关事件后金价一度上涨150美元/盎司，以及在高价位区间金价波动性加大的迹象，大华银行上调了黄金 价格预测。该行现预计，第一季度金价为4,400美元/盎司，高于此前的4,300美元；第二季度为4,600美 元，高于此前的4,400美元；第三季度为4,800美元，高于此前的4,500美元；第四季度为5,000美元，高于 此前的4,600美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - UOB has raised Vietnam's GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 7.7% due to strong export performance, resilient manufacturing activity, and continued foreign investment [1] Economic Growth Forecast - UOB predicts Vietnam's economic growth rate for Q4 to be 7.2% [1] - Vietnam's actual GDP grew by 7.85% in the first three quarters [1] - The economic outlook for 2026 remains optimistic, although growth is expected to slightly slow to 7% due to base effects and previous growth deceleration [1] Influencing Factors - The country continues to face adverse impacts from changing US trade and tariff policies, yet maintains strong performance thanks to resilient exports and industrial production [1]

Core Insights - The latest CPI and GDP data from the Philippines indicate room for monetary easing [1] - Both overall and core inflation rates have cooled down, with overall inflation remaining below the central bank's target for nine consecutive months [1] - Economic growth in the third quarter has slowed to its lowest level in over four years [1] - The Governor of the Central Bank of the Philippines, Eli Remolona, has suggested that the slowing growth outlook increases the likelihood of a rate cut in the upcoming meeting [1] - The bank expects the central bank to implement a final rate cut of 25 basis points in the first quarter of the following year to boost domestic growth momentum [1]

Core Insights - The report by UOB highlights that despite short-term challenges from US trade policies, ASEAN's medium to long-term trade and investment outlook remains strong due to enhanced cross-border policy coordination, deepening regional integration, and supply chain diversification [1][2]. Investment Outlook - ASEAN's annual foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow is projected to increase from $225 billion in 2024 to approximately $370 billion by 2030, with total trade volume expected to rise from $3.8 trillion to $5.3 trillion during the same period [1]. - In the first half of 2025, FDI inflows to ASEAN are expected to remain resilient, with a 10.2% year-on-year increase in the balance of payments (BOP) FDI liabilities for the five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam), driven mainly by strong investments in Singapore and Thailand [1]. Trade Performance - In the first nine months of 2025, trade among six ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) is expected to grow by 11.5% year-on-year, surpassing the 8.0% growth rate for the entire year of 2024, largely due to preemptive shipping activities in anticipation of US tariffs and increased AI-related capital expenditures boosting electronics trade in Singapore and Malaysia [2]. - However, trade growth may slow in 2026 due to the effects of delayed US tariffs and the "payback" effect following the preemptive shipments [2]. Key Drivers of Long-term Growth - Strengthened cross-border policy coordination, exemplified by the Johor-Singapore Economic Zone (JS-SEZ) attracting $8.8 billion in approved investments in the first half of 2025 [2]. - Deepening regional integration through recent agreements such as the upgraded ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement (ATIGA) and the 3.0 version of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA), aimed at enhancing customs efficiency and expanding cooperation in digital and green economies [2]. - A large and growing consumer base in Southeast Asia, with nearly 700 million people and a relatively young demographic, making ASEAN an attractive investment destination [3]. Economic Projections - By 2030, ASEAN's nominal GDP is expected to expand to nearly $5.8 trillion, a 40% increase from $4.2 trillion in 2025, with per capita income projected to rise from $6,000 to $8,000 [5]. - FDI inflows are anticipated to exceed $560 billion by 2035, while total trade volume is expected to surpass $7 trillion by the same year [5]. - The average growth rate for the six ASEAN countries is projected at 4.6% in 2025, slowing to 4.2% in 2026 due to trade uncertainties, but expected to recover to an average of around 4.6% from 2027 to 2030 [5].

Core Insights - The report from UOB highlights the temporary end of the U.S. government shutdown, which lasted for 43 days, but warns of significant risks of another shutdown due to the temporary funding bill lasting only until January 30, 2026 [1][2] - The shutdown has caused delays in economic recovery and may result in the permanent loss of key economic data, impacting policymakers' ability to make informed decisions [1][2] Economic Impact - The report indicates that the resumption of government services will not be immediate, with programs like the federal food stamp assistance for 42 million Americans taking up to a week to fully restore [2] - The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has also imposed flight restrictions due to staff shortages caused by the shutdown, which are expected to take a week to lift [2] GDP Forecast Adjustments - UOB has revised its U.S. GDP growth forecasts, lowering the 2025 growth estimate from 1.7% to 1.5% due to the impact of the shutdown, while increasing the 2026 forecast from 1.5% to 1.7% based on expected recovery [2] Risks Ahead - The primary risk for the 2026 forecast is the potential for another prolonged government shutdown after January 30, which could adversely affect sectors like aviation [3]

Core Viewpoint - CGS International maintains a "Hold" rating on UOB but lowers the target price from SGD 38.30 to SGD 36.50 due to concerns over the bank's earnings recovery following a significant one-time provision in Q3 2025 to address risks in the US and Greater China commercial real estate sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - UOB recorded a special provision of SGD 479 million in Q3 2025, with credit costs reaching 55 basis points, significantly higher than the bank's previous guidance of 25-30 basis points for the fiscal year [1]. - The increase in provisions is attributed to declining transaction valuations in the US and Greater China commercial real estate markets, necessitating write-downs on loan book asset values [1]. - UOB decided to recognize an additional general provision of SGD 615 million, bringing the total general provision for Q3 to SGD 687 million [1]. Group 2: Earnings Forecast - CGS International has significantly reduced UOB's earnings per share (EPS) forecasts, cutting the 2025 fiscal year EPS estimate by 18.8%, and lowering the 2026 and 2027 fiscal year EPS estimates by 13.1% and 10.4%, respectively [2]. - Despite UOB management's positive signals regarding credit costs normalizing in Q4 and FY 2026, market concerns about high credit costs are expected to persist in the short term [2].

Core Insights - The company is conducting a media briefing to present its third quarter 2025 results, indicating a structured approach to communicate financial performance and operational insights [1]. Group 1: Leadership Overview - The Deputy Chairman and Group CEO, Mr. Wee Cheong, will provide a broad overview of the company's franchise performance and the operating landscape [1]. - Following Mr. Wee's presentation, the Group CFO, Mr. Leong Yung-Chee, will delve into detailed financials and business performance [1]. Group 2: Media Interaction - After the presentations, there will be a Q&A session with the media, suggesting an emphasis on transparency and engagement with stakeholders [1].

Group 1 - The article does not provide any specific content or key points related to a company or industry [1]

Core Insights - The latest report from UOB's Global Economic and Market Research Department indicates that the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone (JS-SEZ) has successfully attracted approved investments amounting to 37 billion Malaysian Ringgit (approximately 8.8 billion USD) by the first half of 2025 [1] - Since the signing of the JS-SEZ Memorandum of Understanding in January 2024, Singapore-based companies have committed to invest over 5.5 billion Singapore Dollars (approximately 4.2 billion USD) in Johor, showcasing strong bilateral economic integration and investor confidence in the region's development prospects [1] - The 37 billion Malaysian Ringgit investment in the first half of 2025 accounts for two-thirds of Johor's total investment (56 billion Malaysian Ringgit) during the same period, significantly exceeding the total approved investment of 48.5 billion Malaysian Ringgit for the entire year of 2024 [1] Investment Facilitation Measures - At the recent JS-SEZ Joint Investment Forum held in Singapore, both governments announced several key facilitation measures aimed at accelerating cross-border flows, including a fast-track approval process for manufacturing projects in non-sensitive industries within seven working days [1] - Eligible foreign investors will be provided with multiple-entry visas valid for up to 12 months, and a Strategic Co-Investment Fund (COSIF) will be established to further enhance investment opportunities [1] Regional Economic Initiatives - Malaysia has introduced the "ASEAN Business Entities" (ABE) initiative to offer regulatory flexibility and incentives for businesses to support cross-border operations and the movement of skilled talent [2] - The official tax incentive framework for the Forest City Special Financial Zone (SFZ) has been published, offering competitive corporate tax rates ranging from 0% to 5% for eligible global business services, fintech companies, and family offices [2] Market Outlook - Despite uncertainties in the global trade environment, particularly regarding U.S. tariff policies, companies are increasingly adapting to this landscape by focusing on supply chain diversification [2] - The JS-SEZ and the broader ASEAN region are becoming a "stabilizer" and opportunity for global investors seeking to mitigate risks and pursue long-term growth, reflecting investor confidence in the economic resilience and growth potential of ASEAN [2]

Group 1 - Recently, Dahua Bank (China) Limited applied to the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for the cancellation of its public offering securities investment fund sales business license, which has been approved by the CSRC [2][3] - The cancellation is in accordance with relevant regulations including the Administrative Licensing Law and the Securities Investment Fund Law [2] Group 2 - In February 2025, Dahua Bank announced a strategic business adjustment, transferring its personal business to Fubon Bank, which includes customer accounts, deposits, loans, and related wealth management products [5] - On June 12, 2025, Shanghai Dongfang Securities Asset Management Company announced the termination of its fund distribution cooperation with Dahua Bank [5] - On June 25, 2025, Guangfa Fund announced that it would stop processing subscription, purchase, and transfer-in services for its funds through Dahua Bank starting June 30 [5]