Group 1 - The upcoming US CPI data for May is crucial for assessing the price transmission effects of the Trump administration's tariff policies, with expectations of a potential increase in year-on-year CPI from 2.3% to 2.5% [1] - The impact of tariffs is becoming more evident in the commodity sector, with significant price increases expected in audio equipment, clothing, new cars, and home appliances, while retail price hikes indicate accumulating transmission pressures [3] - There is a fundamental divide within the Federal Reserve regarding the assessment of tariff impacts, with differing views on whether the effects are persistent or one-time shocks, contributing to uncertainty around interest rate cuts [3] Group 2 - The May CPI data may signify the end of the "pre-tariff era" inflation model, as the depletion of corporate inventories could lead to clearer cost transmission paths in the coming months [4] - The bond and currency markets are closely linked to the CPI release, with upcoming treasury auctions testing market pricing of inflation expectations, and potential movements in the dollar index and gold prices being monitored [3] - The divergence in consumer spending patterns, particularly in services showing deflationary signs, may temporarily suppress overall inflation despite rising prices in certain goods [3]
BlueberryMarkets蓝莓市场：美国5月CPI会否揭示关税通胀传导？
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-06-11 06:51