“私募魔女”李蓓反思，到底错在哪里

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reflections and investment strategies of Li Bei, a prominent private equity fund manager, who acknowledges her underperformance over the past two years due to a lack of understanding of domestic policy-making and execution mechanisms [1][6]. Investment Performance - Li Bei admits that her investment performance has been poor in the last two years, missing opportunities in sectors like small-cap stocks, new consumption, technology, and pharmaceuticals, which led to mediocre equity returns [2][3]. - The performance of her fund, the Honghu Zhongyu Macro Hedge Fund, has shown a cumulative return of 121.91% since its inception, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index's 21.94% over the same period, but has lagged in the last two years with a return of -15.63% compared to the index's 0.97% [9]. Investment Strategy - Li Bei emphasizes her commitment to avoiding large positions in pharmaceuticals and new consumption, as well as not participating in small-cap stocks, while focusing on cyclical, high-dividend, and low price-to-book ratio stocks [1][6]. - She proposes three improvement measures: enhancing foreign capital tracking, selecting stocks with alpha potential, and prioritizing safety and risk-reward ratios by choosing low PB and high dividend stocks [3]. Portfolio Composition - Li Bei presents two investment portfolios for consideration, with her preference for Portfolio B, which includes low PB and high dividend stocks, indicating a focus on safety and long-term value [4][5]. - The current asset allocation includes 55%-60% in equities, 10%-15% in gold for hedging against dollar risks, and a focus on low-carry commodities and government bonds [5][6]. Market Analysis - Li Bei reflects on the changing dynamics of policy execution in China, noting a significant decrease in the effectiveness and duration of policy implementation over the past two years, which has contributed to her investment misjudgments [3][8]. - The article highlights the challenges faced by Li Bei in making accurate market predictions, particularly in the context of her macro hedge strategy, which relies heavily on timing and market trend analysis [8].