Juno markets 外匯：美债市场能否经受通胀与赤字的双重考验？

Group 1 - The upcoming release of the US May CPI and PPI data, along with a $61 billion long-term Treasury auction, will test the bond market's resilience amid inflationary pressures and expanding fiscal deficits [1] - Economists are particularly focused on the potential impact of tariffs on core commodity prices, which could create structural inflationary pressures and prompt the Federal Reserve to reassess its policy path [1][3] - The auction results of $39 billion in 10-year and $22 billion in 30-year Treasuries will reveal investors' true judgment on the long-term attractiveness of US debt [3] Group 2 - The current environment of expanding fiscal deficits and rising debt levels is altering the risk premium associated with US Treasuries [3] - There is a growing divergence among market participants regarding the attractiveness of US Treasury yields compared to other major economies, with some believing that demand for 10-year Treasuries will remain strong despite fiscal risks [3][4] - The market's response this week will provide important signals; a stable absorption of inflation data and Treasury supply may indicate acceptance of a "high rate + high deficit" new normal [4]