富格林：可信出金冻结黑幕 5月CPI或现多空突破口

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, reaching a peak of $3349.1 per ounce before closing at $3322.6, reflecting a slight decline of 0.09% [1] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, are providing strong support for gold prices, as recent military actions have escalated [5] - The World Bank has downgraded global economic growth expectations to 2.3% for 2025, citing trade barriers and rising tariffs, which enhances gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6] Group 2: U.S.-China Trade Negotiations - The second round of U.S.-China trade negotiations commenced in London, with positive progress reported by the U.S. Commerce Department, which could impact global economic conditions and gold prices [3] - If negotiations yield favorable outcomes, market risk appetite may temporarily increase, potentially exerting downward pressure on gold prices in the short term [3] - Long-term implications of the trade war, including supply chain restructuring and economic slowdown, may continue to support gold demand [3] Group 3: U.S. Monetary Policy and Inflation - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, reducing the likelihood of rapid interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] - Market anticipations suggest a potential 25 basis point rate cut may occur later in 2025, influenced by rising inflation pressures [4] - The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is crucial for assessing economic health and guiding expectations for the dollar and Fed interest rates, which could impact gold prices [4] Group 4: Oil Market Overview - International oil prices remain near seven-week highs, with WTI crude reaching $65 before closing at $64.47 per barrel, while Brent crude settled at $66.72 [8] - OPEC+ is set to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, continuing to ease previous production cuts, which may exert pressure on oil prices [8] - The balance between global trade developments and OPEC+ production increases creates a complex environment for oil price movements [10]