Zhongtai Securities(SH:600918) 智通财经网·2025-06-11 08:33Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai Securities indicates that the decline in supply growth presents an opportunity for improvement in the aviation industry, with expectations of a performance turning point for airlines due to favorable supply-demand dynamics, stable ticket prices, and high passenger load factors [1] Supply Side Analysis - The introduction of new aircraft is expected to slow down due to factors such as a slow recovery of the supply chain, retirement of old aircraft, insufficient new orders, and uncertainties in China-US relations. The projected supply growth rates (ASK) for the industry from 2025 to 2027 are 6.32%, 4.56%, and 2.26% respectively [1] - Boeing and Airbus are facing delivery delays, with 2024 deliveries expected to be 766 and 348 aircraft respectively, which do not return to pre-pandemic levels. The delivery progress for the first four months of 2025 is also lagging behind annual plans [1][2] - The shortage of engines is significantly constraining deliveries, with only 1,407 LEAP engines expected to be delivered in 2024, supporting only 700 new narrow-body aircraft, which is well below the pre-pandemic demand [1] Domestic Aircraft Production - The C909 aircraft is steadily increasing its production capacity, with a projected delivery of 35 units in 2024, while the C919 is expected to take longer to ramp up, with only 16 units delivered by the end of 2024 [2] - There are 195 total orders for the C909 and 330 confirmed orders for the C919, with significant deliveries planned from 2024 to 2031 [2] Inventory Perspective - The supply chain crisis persists, and the retirement of aircraft is expected to accelerate, with projected retirements of 134, 143, and 152 aircraft from 2025 to 2027 [4] - The utilization of wide-body aircraft remains low, with a significant shift in capacity allocation towards domestic routes, which may impact overall efficiency [3] Engine Issues - The PW1100 engine is facing significant operational disruptions due to contamination risks, leading to large-scale recalls and repairs, while the LEAP engine is experiencing durability issues that require upgrades [4] - The impact of these engine issues is expected to be more pronounced for the PW1100, with a notable increase in grounded aircraft compared to previous years [4]