科思股份(300856)：美护原料龙头 静待周期反转

Industry Overview - The global beauty and personal care industry is showing a clear trend towards premiumization, with high-end makeup, online channels, and sunscreen penetration rates continuously increasing [1] - The fragrance and flavor industry is steadily growing, with a projected market size of $32.3 billion by 2024 according to Precedence Research, indicating significant development potential in the Chinese market due to its low concentration [1] Company Performance - The company is leveraging its technological and market advantages to accelerate growth in the face of industry opportunities [1] - In 2023, the company invested CNY 113 million in R&D, a year-on-year increase of 40.79%, and launched high-margin sunscreen agents such as P-S and EHT, while also advancing high-end personal care raw materials [1] - The company maintains stable revenue growth supported by solid customer resources, with major clients like DSM, Procter & Gamble, and L'Oréal contributing over 60% of revenue [1] - The company is expanding its customer base to include small and medium-sized clients, enhancing pricing power and gross margins, while strengthening market coverage through a direct sales and distribution model [1] Capacity Expansion - Ongoing fundraising projects are expanding production capacity, with a strategic focus on large clients ensuring efficient production and sales coordination [1] - The company's active ingredient production capacity utilization rate is expected to reach 54.98% in 2024, with a stable production and sales rate exceeding 90% in 2023 [1] - The company has strong cost transfer capabilities, allowing it to effectively manage cost pressures from raw material price fluctuations, thereby maintaining robust profitability and reinforcing its competitive advantage in the industry [1] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - As a leading global supplier of beauty raw materials, the company is continuously optimizing its product layout and has stable customer resources [2] - The projected net profits attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 are CNY 400 million, CNY 490 million, and CNY 540 million respectively, with a 2025 PE valuation of 22 times, corresponding to a reasonable value of CNY 18.70 per share, and a buy rating is recommended [2]