凯德北京投资基金管理有限公司：德银预测明年美国企业违约率将大幅上升

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank's latest report indicates that the default rate for high-risk U.S. companies is expected to rise slightly by 2026 due to economic slowdown and rising interest rates, particularly among speculative-grade firms [1][4]. Economic Environment - The tightening global monetary environment is a contributing factor to this trend, with the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield likely to exceed nominal GDP growth for the first time since 2011, increasing corporate financing costs [4]. - The probability of a recession in the U.S. economy is currently estimated at around 30%, highlighting significant risks to economic growth [4]. Corporate Financing Challenges - The tightening of loan standards by U.S. banks adds another layer of burden for companies, exacerbating the default risk amid economic slowdown and rising interest rates [6]. - Companies that rely heavily on high leverage and high-yield debt will face more severe challenges in the coming years [6]. Overall Economic Outlook - Despite potential growth in certain sectors, the overall economic environment in the U.S. remains uncertain, with factors such as slowing economic growth and rising financing costs likely preventing a decrease in corporate default rates by 2026 [6]. - The report emphasizes the need for investors to carefully assess the debt risks of high-risk companies and prepare for potential default events in the future [6].