McDonald's Just Got Hammered By Weight-Loss Drugs — Twice

Core Viewpoint - Weight-loss drugs are significantly altering consumer dining habits in the U.S., posing a threat to the long-term growth of the restaurant industry, particularly fast-food chains [1][2]. Impact on McDonald's - Redburn Atlantic downgraded McDonald's from Buy to Sell, citing concerns over appetite-suppressing medications reshaping consumer behavior [2]. - Analyst Chris Luyckx estimates McDonald's could lose 28 million annual visits, translating to a revenue loss of $481.5 million, which represents a 0.9% drag on systemwide sales [4]. - The report indicates that the cumulative risk of changing eating habits could escalate, with a potential 10% decline in sales over time [4]. Broader Industry Trends - The report suggests a reversal in the trend of increasing calorie consumption from restaurants, which has nearly tripled since 1977 [5]. - Currently, only 6% of U.S. adults are using GLP-1 medications, but this is expected to rise to 12% of non-type 2 diabetic obese adults by 2030 [6]. Spending Patterns Among Income Groups - Lower-income users of GLP-1 medications have reduced fast-food spending by 14%, with lunch and dinner experiencing the sharpest declines [7]. - Lunch spending among lower-income GLP-1 users has dropped by approximately 9%, while dinner spending has fallen by about 12% [7]. Risks to Other Fast-Food Chains - Domino's Pizza and KFC are identified as facing significant risks, with Domino's projected to lose $129.8 million annually, or 1.4% of its system sales, while KFC may see a 1.2% decline [8]. - Redburn initiated coverage on Domino's with a Sell rating and a 12-month price target of $340, indicating a potential 25% decline from current levels [8]. Vulnerability of Specific Chains - Chains like Domino's, McDonald's, and Pizza Hut are more vulnerable due to their high U.S. exposure, reliance on lower-income consumers, and dependence on group dining occasions [9]. - In contrast, Taco Bell and Chipotle are better positioned due to their diversified traffic patterns, with Taco Bell benefiting from late-night traffic and Chipotle's affluent customer base providing some insulation from the impact [9][10].