特朗普再喊话鲍威尔“降息100个基点”！“影子美联储主席”三位热门人选浮现，提前传递政策倾向

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is advocating for a 100 basis point cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, citing favorable Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and potential savings on upcoming debt interest payments [2][3]. Group 1: Shadow Fed Chair Strategy - Trump is considering the "shadow Fed chair" strategy proposed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, which involves signaling potential successors to the current Fed Chair Jerome Powell before his term ends [3][4]. - Deutsche Bank's report identifies three main candidates for the shadow chair: former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and current Fed Governor Chris Waller [5][6]. - The establishment of a shadow chair is seen as a way to provide forward guidance on monetary policy, potentially reducing uncertainty in long-term bond yields and improving the financing environment for U.S. debt [4][16]. Group 2: Implications for Monetary Policy - The shadow chair could influence market expectations regarding interest rate cuts, which Trump has been advocating to support his economic agenda, including the "Big, Beautiful Bill" [4][14]. - Analysts suggest that the shadow chair's role, while not having formal power, could shape economic behavior and market perceptions ahead of any official policy changes [4][10]. - The strategy may also serve to undermine Powell's authority and signal a shift in monetary policy direction, as Trump seeks to exert more influence over the Fed [13][14]. Group 3: Candidate Preferences - Among the candidates, Waller is viewed as more favorable due to his dovish stance on monetary policy, while Warsh has historically held hawkish views [7][8]. - The selection of a candidate who can effectively advocate for lower interest rates will be crucial, as the new chair will need to persuade the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for policy changes [8][9]. - Bessent's potential candidacy has been denied by the White House, indicating a focus on the other three candidates [9].