棕榈油价格突然大跌，原因是→

Core Viewpoint - The Malaysian palm oil market is experiencing a bearish trend due to increased inventory and weak crude oil prices, leading to a decline in palm oil futures prices [1][3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - In May, Malaysia's palm oil production reached 1.7716 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.05%, exceeding market expectations [3]. - Exports of palm oil in May rose to 1.3872 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 25.62%, driven by increased demand from India [3]. - Palm oil inventory at the end of May increased to 1.9902 million tons, a month-on-month rise of 6.65%, marking the highest level since September 2024 [3]. Market Dynamics - India's reduction of the basic import tariff on crude vegetable oils from 20% to 10% has stimulated palm oil import demand, positively impacting Malaysian exports [4]. - The Malaysian palm oil market is expected to maintain strong export performance in June, supported by ongoing production increases and favorable demand conditions [4]. - The palm oil production cycle is currently in an upward trend, with expectations of a peak in production during the third quarter [4]. Domestic Market Conditions - In the domestic market, palm oil imports have increased due to a significant narrowing of import profit margins, with commercial inventory rising to 400,000 tons as of June 11 [5]. - Despite increased demand from India, the supply pressure from the production cycle is expected to keep palm oil prices under pressure [5]. - The market is anticipated to experience fluctuations, influenced by the balance between Indian purchasing support and production pressures [5].