Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility due to Trump's tariff policies, entering a technical bear market in early April, but has since rebounded strongly, with all three major indices recovering losses and the Nasdaq approaching historical highs [1] - The S&P 500 recorded its best monthly performance of 2023, indicating a strong recovery despite ongoing trade tensions and tariff policy uncertainties [1] Group 2 - The U.S. CPI annual rate fell to 2.3%, the lowest in recent years, showing a continued decline in inflation, yet concerns about consumer confidence and policy uncertainty have led to warnings from several Federal Reserve officials about potential inflation and unemployment risks [3] - The U.S. GDP recorded negative growth in Q1, marking the worst performance since October 2022, raising concerns about stagflation, which poses greater risks than a simple recession [3] - The "Big and Beautiful Act" promoted by Trump is projected to reduce tax revenue by approximately $3.75 trillion over the next decade and increase the fiscal deficit by $2.4 trillion, leading to a downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody's [3] Group 3 - There is a significant divide within the Federal Reserve regarding policy direction, with dovish members viewing tariff impacts as temporary and advocating for a wait-and-see approach, while hawkish members emphasize the uncertainty of trade negotiations and advocate for maintaining stable interest rates [4] - The likelihood of interest rate cuts has been pushed back, with low probabilities for cuts in June, and potential cuts not expected until July or September, which may limit further gains in the stock market [4] - The stock market has shown signs of high-level consolidation, with the Dow Jones facing resistance around the 43,400 level [4]
【百利好指数专题】降息概率再降 美股加剧动荡
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-06-12 02:16