【UNFX课堂】五月通胀数据：缓慢进展与持续的粘性

Core Insights - The May 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates a slow but non-linear decline in inflation, with overall CPI rising by 2.4% year-on-year and core CPI increasing by 2.8%, both slightly below market expectations [1][2] - The core CPI's year-on-year growth rate has remained at 2.8% for the second consecutive month, suggesting a gradual cooling of inflation [1][2] Inflation Trends - The slight increase in overall CPI from 2.3% in April to 2.4% in May is attributed to base effects and specific monthly fluctuations, with month-on-month growth rates showing a slowdown [2] - Core CPI's month-on-month growth has also slowed to 0.1% (seasonally adjusted), marking one of the lowest monthly increases since last year, providing evidence for ongoing disinflation [2] Service Sector and Housing Costs - Core services (excluding energy) have seen a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, remaining unchanged from April, indicating persistent inflationary pressure in this sector [2] - Housing rent, a major component of core services, has seen a slight decrease in year-on-year growth from 4.0% in April to 3.9% in May, but the month-on-month growth remains at 0.3%, reflecting a slow adjustment process [2][4] Core Goods and Tariff Impact - Core goods inflation has begun to contribute positively to overall inflation, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, following a period of negative or near-zero growth [4] - Despite recent tariffs imposed on Canada, Mexico, and China, May data did not show significant acceleration in goods inflation, suggesting a lag in tariff transmission or offsetting factors such as supply chain improvements [4] Monetary Policy Implications - The report supports the Federal Reserve's stance to maintain interest rates, as the moderate performance of core inflation and the slowdown in monthly data provide solid backing for this decision [5][6] - The Federal Reserve is weighing various factors, including the gradual decline in inflation and the persistent stickiness in the service sector, particularly housing, alongside potential inflationary risks from tariffs [6][7] Future Outlook - The upcoming FOMC economic projections, especially regarding inflation and GDP growth, will be closely monitored by the market, as they may influence the Fed's outlook on the current inflation environment [7] - The path to achieving the 2% inflation target remains challenging, requiring time and continuous data support, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain a cautious approach until clearer signals emerge [8]