美国5月CPI数据公布，高关税政策推升商品价格在局部显现

Group 1 - The core consumer price index (CPI) in the US increased by 2.8% year-on-year in May, indicating upward pressure on inflation due to high tariffs [1][2] - The impact of tariffs on consumer goods prices is becoming evident, with significant price increases in categories such as household appliances and toys, although these are not yet sufficient to elevate overall inflation [2][3] - Consumer inflation expectations have risen, with the one-year expectation increasing to 6.6%, the highest since November 2023, reflecting concerns over future price levels due to tariff uncertainties [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve faces increased difficulty in formulating monetary policy, with market expectations for interest rate cuts being pushed back despite calls from President Trump for a one percentage point reduction [4][5] - The Fed is likely to maintain its current interest rates in the upcoming meetings, with a potential for rate cuts to begin in September [6][7] - There is a consensus among market participants that the US economy is showing signs of cooling, leading to expectations of at least two rate cuts within the year [7]