Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-06-12 04:18Group 1: Overview of the China Internet Industry Tour - Macquarie analysts initiated a tour of the Chinese internet industry, starting with a visit to Yiwu, where they expressed surprise at the city's resilience and adaptability amid trade disputes and supply chain impacts [1][2] - The analysts noted that the "Belt and Road" countries remain a key growth pillar for cross-border transactions, with expectations of sustained increases in freight prices [1][3] - Macquarie upgraded SF Holding (002352) to "Outperform" based on its leading position in the Asian market and positive expectations for international supply chain momentum [1][4] Group 2: Insights from Yiwu - Yiwu's export model primarily relies on the "1039" market procurement model, which has limited the impact of tariffs, with exports showing strong recovery in May after a temporary setback in April [2][7] - The demand for trade routes less affected by tariffs remains strong, with over 60% of Yiwu's GMV directed towards "Belt and Road" countries [6][7] - The decline in T86 shipments since April has significantly impacted cross-border e-commerce platforms like Temu and Shein, prompting a shift from full consignment to semi-consignment models [3][9] Group 3: Cross-Border Logistics Trends - Freight forwarding prices have surged, with costs reported to be 4-5 times higher than pre-"Liberation Day" levels, driven by increased demand for overseas supply chain management [4][13] - The demand for shipping to Southeast Asian countries has also risen, with freight prices increasing by 2 to 4 times as businesses adjust their supply chains to mitigate geopolitical risks [14][13] Group 4: AI and Cloud Computing Developments - The demand for AI is accelerating the deployment of public cloud services, providing new revenue streams for leading cloud service providers [1][15] - Major internet companies are developing clear AI strategies, with Tencent focusing on intelligent agents and Alibaba emphasizing cloud and AI infrastructure [15][16] - The overall outlook for public cloud demand remains positive, particularly in relation to AI, with expectations for significant revenue contributions from AI-related services in the medium term [16][17]