徐长明：插电混动和增程车型短时间占比或将超过纯电车型

Core Insights - The fifth International Forum on Automotive Power Systems was held in Shanghai, focusing on the diverse development of global automotive power systems [1] - Xu Changming presented a keynote report on the current status and future prospects of the hybrid vehicle market in China and abroad [1] Hybrid Vehicle Market in China - Since 2021, China's hybrid vehicle sales (including HEV, PHEV, REEV) have experienced exponential growth, with an annual growth rate of at least 50%, increasing from less than 1 million to nearly 6 million units [3] - PHEVs have seen a rapid increase in market share, reaching 62.6% last year and 62.7% in the first four months of this year, while HEV's share is declining [3] - The rapid development of PHEVs and range-extended vehicles is attributed to three main factors: supply-side push from brands like BYD and Li Auto, consumer preference for better economy and driving experience, and supportive government policies [3][4] Government Policies and Future Outlook - PHEVs and range-extended vehicles enjoy similar incentives as pure electric vehicles, with expectations that these policies will remain largely unchanged or slightly adjusted in the next 2-3 years [4] - There is a potential for PHEVs and range-extended vehicles to surpass pure electric vehicles in market share in the short term [4] Global Hybrid Vehicle Market Trends - The hybrid vehicle market overseas has also seen rapid growth, with a growth rate of 20%-30% in 2023, slightly lower than China's market [4] - In the overseas market, HEVs dominate with a share of about 78%, while PHEVs account for approximately 20% [4] - The only regions where hybrid vehicles have a higher market share than in China are Japan and South Korea, where hybrids account for about one-third of the market [4] Opportunities for Chinese Hybrid Vehicles Abroad - Chinese hybrid vehicles are expected to play a significant role in the global hybrid market, with Brazil projected to have the highest sales of Chinese brand hybrids at 59,000 units in 2024, primarily PHEVs [5] - Future opportunities for Chinese hybrid vehicles lie in countries with good home charging conditions and younger populations, such as Brazil, Russia, and Uzbekistan [5]