BlueberryMarkets蓝莓市场：美元步入正常化，未来将何去何从？

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing significant volatility, reflecting a shift in the global economic and financial landscape, with a current quote of 98.42, down 0.22% from the opening price of 98.64 [1] Group 1: Dollar Normalization - The Dutch cooperative bank's report indicates that the dollar is entering a significant normalization phase after a decade of unusual strength, which was not based on stable economic fundamentals [3] - The current global financial market adjustment is prompting a reassessment of economic fundamentals, leading the dollar to return to a more reasonable value range [3] - Despite recent improvements in US trade data alleviating some concerns about trade deficits, the bank maintains a short-term recession forecast for the US economy, which is a core factor driving the dollar's normalization [3] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - The normalization process suggests that the dollar's exchange rate may gradually align with long-term equilibrium levels, moving away from its previously extraordinary strength [4] - Increased volatility in the dollar's performance is expected due to frequent fluctuations in economic data and shifting market expectations [4] - Key economic indicators such as employment, inflation, and GDP growth will directly reflect the health of the US economy and influence the supply-demand dynamics of the dollar [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance is a critical variable determining the dollar's trajectory, with its assessments of economic conditions and subsequent policy adjustments impacting the dollar's attractiveness in international markets [4] - Investors should closely monitor the alignment between the Federal Reserve's policy stance and the realities of the US economy to capitalize on potential investment opportunities and risks associated with dollar fluctuations [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The dollar index is currently testing key resistance and support levels, with immediate resistance at the nine-day moving average of 99.16 [5] - A successful breakthrough of this level could enhance short-term price momentum and push the index towards the upper boundary of a descending channel around 99.90 [5] - If the index continues to rise and surpasses 99.90, bullish sentiment may strengthen, challenging the 50-day moving average at 100.59, which could significantly boost mid-term price momentum [5]