广发证券：维持贝壳-W“买入”评级 合理价值59.32港元

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Beike-W (02423) is expected to achieve adjusted net profit of 7.7 billion yuan and 10.3 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, representing year-on-year growth of 6% and 34% respectively, with a target price of 59.32 HKD/share and 22.86 USD/share based on a 26x PE ratio for 2025 [1] - Beike's stock-based compensation (SBC) for 2024 is projected to be 2.7 billion yuan, accounting for 38% of the adjusted net profit of 7.2 billion yuan, with a gradual decrease in SBC expected in the following years [1][3] - The core management team received a significant incentive in 2022, resulting in 3.6 billion yuan of deferred expenses to be amortized over five years, which has led to higher reported compensation figures [2] Group 2 - Beike's SBC is expected to decrease to 1.94 billion yuan, 1.78 billion yuan, and 1.47 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a trend of declining stock-based compensation [3] - When comparing Beike to other internet platforms like JD.com, Meituan, and Tencent, Beike has a lower proportion of employee incentive value relative to adjusted net profit, demonstrating better control over stock-based compensation [4] - Beike has provided a total shareholder return rate of 5.5%, which is significantly higher than its peers, indicating a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders during its growth phase [4]