香港为何颁布《稳定币条例》？稳定币会不会不稳定？

Core Viewpoint - The global trend towards the legalization of stablecoins is gaining momentum, with potential implications for the traditional currency payment system and the demand for U.S. Treasury securities [1][16]. Group 1: Definition and Characteristics of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are blockchain-based digital currencies that are pegged to specific assets, primarily the U.S. dollar, which distinguishes them from volatile cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin [2]. - The stability of stablecoins is intended to provide a reliable medium of exchange, contrasting with the inherent volatility of cryptocurrencies [2]. Group 2: Development Stages of Stablecoins - The development of stablecoins can be categorized into four stages: 1. Emergence Stage (Pre-2018): Initial creation of stablecoins like Tether (USDT) with limited price fluctuations [4]. 2. Rapid Growth Stage (2019-2021): Expansion driven by the DeFi ecosystem, leading to increased demand for stablecoins as payment and valuation tools [4]. 3. Regulatory Adjustment Stage (2022-2023): Market corrections following significant failures like TerraUSD (UST), prompting regulatory scrutiny [4][7]. 4. Resurgence Stage (2024-Present): Renewed growth in stablecoins as they become integral to the evolving cryptocurrency ecosystem, supported by new legislation in the U.S. and Hong Kong [7][16]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Stablecoins face risks related to the compliance and operational management of issuing entities, including insufficient transparency of reserve assets and liquidity management failures [11][15]. - The concentration of wealth within the stablecoin ecosystem raises concerns about market stability, with a significant portion of transactions driven by automated trading rather than human participation [15]. Group 4: Regulatory Developments - Recent legislative actions in the U.S. and Hong Kong aim to establish regulatory frameworks for stablecoins, emphasizing reserve management and compliance [16][22]. - The U.S. Senate's passage of the GENIUS Act and Hong Kong's Stablecoin Ordinance mark significant steps towards formalizing the stablecoin market [16][22]. Group 5: Market Implications - The potential for stablecoins to act as a reservoir for U.S. Treasury securities is debated, with concerns that they cannot be issued without corresponding fiat currency backing [17][18]. - The current focus on short-term U.S. Treasury securities by stablecoin issuers may not address the broader challenges facing U.S. debt markets [20]. Group 6: Future Outlook - While stablecoins exhibit advantages such as reduced transaction costs and improved liquidity, their growth may face hurdles in replacing traditional payment systems [24][26]. - The profitability of stablecoin issuers relies on interest rate differentials, which could pose risks if regulatory pressures increase or if users shift to alternative digital currencies [26].