Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-06-12 07:36Group 1 - The current liquor sector has entered a bottoming phase, presenting a potential opportunity for investment, with a cautiously optimistic outlook [1][2] - The price of Feitian liquor has seen a narrowing year-on-year decline from May to June, and if the sector can navigate the current pressure test, prices may stabilize above 2000 yuan [1][2] - Market expectations for a downward revision in performance growth have been adequately priced in, with leading companies focusing on long-term strategies and maintaining strong dividend guidance [1][2] Group 2 - The second quarter is traditionally a slow season for the liquor industry, compounded by increased environmental uncertainties, leading to weaker stock prices [1] - Demand has been affected by recent tax policy changes and regulations aimed at reducing waste, impacting business consumption scenarios [1] - Major liquor companies are prioritizing channel health and slow delivery, while online sales continue to grow rapidly, affecting traditional pricing structures [1] Group 3 - The consensus on industry deceleration has strengthened, with individual stock performance becoming more differentiated, transitioning from strong performers to those under pressure [1] - Major liquor companies are experiencing slower payment and delivery progress compared to the previous year, leading to increased inventory levels [1] - The annual performance targets of liquor companies are being adjusted to reflect a more rational growth approach, with expectations for mid-year growth rates to be revised downward [1]