蓝莓市场BBMarkets：美联储降息与贸易风险下美元何去何从？

Group 1: Core Views - The US dollar index has fallen to a seven-week low of 98.35, reflecting market expectations of a shift in US monetary policy and the complex impact of trade policy fluctuations on the dollar's safe-haven status [1][3] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut has become a key driver suppressing the dollar, with a 75% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [1][3] - Trade uncertainties, particularly President Trump's recent statements about imposing tariffs, have led to a reassessment of global supply chain risks, further pressuring the dollar [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent US CPI data has come in below market expectations, contributing to the strengthening of rate cut expectations [1] - The market is closely watching upcoming US Producer Price Index (PPI) and initial jobless claims data, as continued low PPI could indicate deflationary pressures and reinforce the need for Fed easing [3][4] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The dollar index is currently trading below the 100-day EMA, with an RSI of 38.80, indicating prevailing bearish momentum [4] - Key support for the dollar index is at the 98.00 level, with potential targets for further declines at 97.70 and 96.55 if this support is breached [4] - A technical rebound could face initial resistance at 99.38, with further challenges at the 100.00 level and the upper Bollinger Band around 100.60 [4]