美国温和通胀数据背后的隐忧

Group 1 - The new tariff policies announced by the Trump administration have raised concerns among financial institutions and businesses about potential inflation, despite recent CPI reports indicating manageable inflation levels [1][2] - The May CPI report showed a nominal inflation increase of 0.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, slightly above April's 2.3% [1] - Core inflation, excluding food and energy, remained stable at 2.8%, but was below market expectations of 2.9% [1] Group 2 - The employment market has shown a downward trend, with average monthly job additions from January to May at 123,800, lower than the previous year's average of 179,600 [2][3] - The service sector has been the primary source of job growth, while manufacturing and federal government sectors have seen job losses [3] Group 3 - The U.S. federal debt has reached $36.97 trillion, with a recent bill increasing the debt ceiling by $4 trillion, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [3][4] - Investor confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds is declining, as evidenced by a high issuance rate of 5.047% for 30-year bonds in May, indicating increased risk perception [4] Group 4 - The recent surge in cryptocurrency prices and the depreciation of the dollar suggest a growing distrust in U.S. fiscal policy and the dollar's stability [5] - The impact of tariff policies on the global supply chain is significant, with reduced cargo volumes at several ports and rising production costs affecting economic growth [5][6] Group 5 - The stock market has returned to previous levels, but there are concerns about whether inflated stock prices can be supported by upcoming earnings reports [6] - The concentration of market value in the top ten stocks of the S&P 500, which account for 40% of the index, poses a serious risk to market stability [6]