Core Viewpoint - The silver market experienced a significant surge, with spot silver prices rising over 5% in a single day, reaching a three-month high of $34.78 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and industrial demand [1][3][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Escalating geopolitical risks, particularly the attack by Ukraine on Russian airbases, and renewed trade tensions due to potential tariff increases by the Trump administration, have heightened market anxiety, prompting a shift towards safe-haven assets like silver [3]. - U.S. economic data, including a drop in the ISM manufacturing index to 48.5 and a decline in export orders to a record low of 40.1, further fueled the demand for safe-haven assets [3]. Group 2: Industrial Demand and Supply Dynamics - Silver's industrial demand is projected to reach 22,110 tons in 2024, accounting for 58% of total demand, driven by sectors such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles [4]. - A tightening supply forecast indicates a growing supply deficit, expected to expand from 6,003 tons in 2024 to 7,248 tons by 2027, providing strong support for silver prices [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Investment Trends - The surge in silver prices has led to a significant increase in trading volume, with a 120% rise in silver trading and a notable spike in investor inquiries [1][3]. - The iShares Silver Trust saw a record single-day increase in holdings, and silver-related stocks in the A-share market experienced substantial gains, indicating heightened investor interest [7]. - Volatility in the futures market has surged, with a 30-day volatility reaching 58%, and a significant increase in bullish sentiment reflected in the options market [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Market Sentiment - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is a key focus, as stronger-than-expected results could dampen expectations for interest rate cuts, potentially leading to a price correction in silver [8][10]. - Despite short-term volatility risks, the long-term outlook remains positive, with expectations of a doubling in silver prices by year-end due to persistent supply shortages and structural growth in industrial demand [8][10].
现货白银单日大涨超5%,避险与工业需求引爆贵金属行情
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-06-12 10:00