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百利好晚盘分析：特朗普再发降息声 黄金多空切换加快
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-06-12 10:10

Gold Market - The US May CPI year-on-year recorded at 2.4%, and month-on-month at 0.1%, both below market expectations of 2.5% and 0.2%, indicating a moderate decline in inflation [1] - Following the CPI data release, spot gold surged by $12, breaking through $3360, reflecting that the US consumer market has not been fully impacted by Trump's tariffs, primarily due to the postponement of the trade war [1] - Trump's call for a 100 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve boosted gold prices, which stabilized at $3360 before a short-term drop to $3340 as market sentiment cooled [1] - Technical analysis indicates gold is oscillating between $3300 and $3400, with support at $3320 and resistance at $3380 [1] Oil Market - The US EIA's short-term energy report predicts a decline in US crude oil production over the next 18 months, with daily production expected to drop from 13.5 million barrels in Q2 to 13.3 million barrels [2] - The number of active US oil rigs fell to 442, the lowest since October 2021, down by 50 rigs from last year, which may help support oil prices due to reduced supply [2] - Recent US-China trade negotiations have resulted in a framework agreement to ease economic tensions, extending last month's trade truce [2] - Tensions between the US and Iran have escalated, with Trump expressing reduced confidence in reaching a nuclear agreement, while Iran threatened to target US military bases in the region if negotiations fail, causing a spike in oil prices [2] - Technical analysis shows that oil prices have broken through the significant resistance level of $65.10, reaching a high of $69.10, with support at $66.40 [2] Nasdaq Index - The Nasdaq index experienced a drop influenced by Trump's rate cut comments, breaking through 22060 and finding support around 21750, maintaining an overall upward trend with a focus on long positions [3] - The uncertainty introduced by Trump's statements necessitates caution regarding potential downward movements in the market [3] US Dollar Index - The dollar index fell below the previous low of 98.56 due to Trump's rate cut comments, continuing its downward trend, with support at the year's low of 97.90 [4]