激增15.8%！二手房到底该怎么救？

Core Insights - The second-hand housing market is facing increasing pressure, with a significant rise in the number of listings and a decline in buyer enthusiasm [3][4][8] - The number of second-hand homes listed in 100 major cities has exceeded 2.718 million, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, particularly pronounced in third and fourth-tier cities with a 21.9% increase [3][4] - Despite rising transaction volumes in May, the inventory of listed homes continues to grow, indicating a surplus of sellers compared to buyers, leading to price declines across all major cities [4][5] Market Dynamics - In May, transaction volumes in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen increased by 6.7%, 15%, 17.73%, and 18.3% respectively, yet this did not alleviate the inventory pressure [4][5] - The average time to sell a second-hand home has increased to 89.4 days, a 7.6% year-on-year rise, with first-tier cities averaging 103 days [4][5] - The market is characterized by a standoff between sellers unwilling to lower prices and buyers who are hesitant to purchase, leading to a protracted negotiation process [5][6] Regulatory Impact - New regulations from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MHURD) are set to elevate standards for new residential projects, making them more competitive against older second-hand homes [6][9] - The new standards include requirements for ceiling heights of at least 3 meters and the integration of smart home systems, which older properties often lack [6][9] Future Outlook - The pressure on the second-hand market is expected to intensify, particularly for older properties in less desirable locations, with predictions of a "price crash" affecting 2.3 million second-hand homes by late 2025 [9][10] - The market may continue to experience a trend of "price for volume" as sellers adjust to the changing landscape, with only high-quality properties in prime locations likely to maintain their value [10][11]