HTFX：美元走势或迎转折信号

Core Viewpoint - HTFX suggests that despite the seemingly strong U.S. non-farm payroll data for May, underlying signals indicate potential weaknesses in the labor market, which may lead to a shift in the dollar's performance and prompt the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate cut cycle sooner than expected [1][6]. Group 1: Employment Data Analysis - The May job additions were reported at 139,000, exceeding the market expectation of 125,000, but previous data has been significantly revised downwards, with March's job additions cut from 224,000 to 120,000, indicating a trend of downward revisions [1][3]. - HTFX anticipates that the May employment increase will likely be revised down to around 100,000 in the future, reflecting a fragile foundation for current employment growth, particularly among small businesses [1][3]. Group 2: Small Business Impact - The ongoing downward revision trend highlights the "inflated" nature of the data and reveals vulnerabilities in employment growth, especially within small enterprises, which are more sensitive to interest rate and cost changes [3]. - The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that the small business hiring sentiment index has fallen to its lowest level since May 2020, indicating a rapid decline in employment expansion momentum [3]. Group 3: Future Employment Projections - Tombs projects that by the end of 2025, employment in key sectors such as transportation, wholesale, and retail may decrease by approximately 50,000 due to the "overdraft effect" from prior cost expectations [4]. Group 4: Dollar and Federal Reserve Outlook - HTFX believes that while the dollar index remains relatively strong, continued weak employment data and easing inflation could lead the Federal Reserve to potentially start a rate cut process as early as September, marking a significant turning point for the forex market [6]. - Investors are advised to closely monitor upcoming revisions to U.S. employment data, small business confidence indicators, and statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding the labor market, as these factors will directly influence dollar exchange rate fluctuations [6].