Newmont's Soaring Unit Costs Warrant Caution: Can It Protect Margins?

Core Insights - Newmont Corporation's first-quarter 2025 results indicate significant increases in unit costs, with gold costs applicable to sales rising 16% year over year to $1,227 per ounce and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) reaching $1,651 per ounce, reflecting a 13% sequential and 15% year-over-year increase [1][6] Cost Trends - Newmont expects gold AISC for its total portfolio to be $1,630 per ounce in 2025, up from $1,516 per ounce in 2024, driven by increased direct operating costs and inflation [2][6] - Higher labor costs, which account for about half of Newmont's direct costs, are a significant concern, alongside rising materials and contract services costs [2][6] - The company anticipates unit costs for the second quarter to be similar to or slightly higher than the first quarter due to increased sustaining capital spending, which is expected to peak in the second quarter [2] Peer Comparisons - Barrick Mining Corporation experienced a 22% sequential increase in AISC to $1,775 per ounce, influenced by operational challenges and lower production [3] - Agnico Eagle Mines Limited reported a slight decline in AISC of 0.6% in the first quarter but projects an increase for the remainder of 2025, with total cash costs per ounce expected between $915 and $965 [4] Market Performance - Newmont's shares have increased by 43.2% year to date, compared to a 48.1% rise in the Zacks Mining – Gold industry, largely due to a rally in gold prices [5] - The company is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 12.12, which is approximately 9.6% below the industry average of 13.4X, and holds a Value Score of A [9] Earnings Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Newmont's earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 20.1% for 2025 and 11.7% for 2026, with EPS estimates trending higher over the past 60 days [10]