2024年黄金升至全球第二大储备资产

Group 1 - The European Central Bank's report indicates that by 2024, gold's share in global central bank reserves will rise to 20%, surpassing the euro's 16%, making it the second-largest reserve asset after the US dollar [1] - Central banks' demand for gold is projected to account for over 20% of global gold demand in 2024, significantly higher than the 10% average from 2010 to 2020 [1] - The net purchases of gold by central banks are expected to exceed 1000 tons for the third consecutive year in 2024, setting a historical record [1] Group 2 - Jewelry and investment in gold continue to dominate global gold demand, accounting for approximately 70%, remaining stable over the past three years [1] - A survey by the World Gold Council reveals that central banks primarily hold gold for diversification and as a hedge against economic risks such as inflation, cyclical downturns, and debt defaults [1] - Geopolitical factors have increasingly influenced central bank investments in gold, with one-quarter of emerging market central banks citing these factors as a primary driver for their gold holdings [1] Group 3 - Gold prices are expected to surge by approximately 30% in 2024, with the inflation-adjusted price exceeding the peak during the 1979 oil crisis [1] - Traditionally, gold is viewed as a hedge against fluctuations in real interest rates; however, since the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the correlation between gold prices and real interest rates has been disrupted, with geopolitical risks becoming a significant factor affecting gold prices [1] Group 4 - Changes in gold supply are identified as a crucial variable for future gold price trends, with historical data suggesting that gold supply has previously responded elastically to rising demand [2] - An increase in official sector demand for gold reserves may lead to a further rise in global gold supply [2]