国际经贸变局之下：中欧班列逆势回暖

Core Insights - The international trade market has faced significant challenges this year, leading to changes in China's international logistics network [1][6] - The China-Europe Railway Express (CRE) experienced a decline in operation numbers and container shipments in the first quarter, but saw a recovery in April with a 9.1% year-on-year growth [1][7] - In contrast, the Central Asia Railway Express has shown robust growth, with double-digit increases in both operation numbers and container shipments [2][9] Summary by Sections China-Europe Railway Express (CRE) - In the first four months of the year, a total of 6,042 CRE trains were operated, reflecting a 2.3% year-on-year decrease, with outbound trains down by 18.2% and return trains up by 17.8% [5] - The total number of containers sent via CRE was 627,236, a 7.1% year-on-year decline, with outbound shipments down by 22.1% [5] - April marked a turning point with a 9.1% increase in the number of trains operated compared to the previous year, indicating a potential recovery in the CRE's performance [7] Central Asia Railway Express - The Central Asia Railway Express has seen significant growth, with operation numbers increasing by 20.6%, 20.2%, and 34.9% in the first three months of the year, and a 9.4% increase in April [9] - Container shipments via the Central Asia Railway Express also grew substantially, with increases of 24.4%, 28.6%, and 40.1% in the first three months, and a 14.6% increase in April [9] - The trade volume from Central Asian countries like Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan has surged, with April growth rates of 50.6%, 7.3%, and 4.7% respectively [2][9] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Geopolitical factors, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have impacted the efficiency of the CRE, leading to a diversion of some export demand to Central Asia [6][11] - The logistics landscape is evolving, with new routes being established, such as the direct South Corridor from Zhengzhou to Europe, and plans for new stations in Budapest [10] - The ongoing tariff disputes and changing global trade dynamics may create new opportunities for the CRE, particularly in the context of EU-China cooperation on electric vehicle tariffs [11]