碳酸锂开工率升至58％，市场博弈加剧，逢高沽空成主流｜大宗风云

Group 1: Lithium Carbonate Market Dynamics - The lithium carbonate futures price experienced fluctuations, initially rising to 62,100 yuan/ton on June 11 due to Zimbabwe's plan to ban lithium ore exports starting in 2027, but then fell again on June 12 as market fundamentals showed no production cuts, leading to continued oversupply pressure [1][7][8] - The production of lithium carbonate is expected to increase by 9.4% month-on-month in June, reaching 78,875 tons, driven by higher output from spodumene and recovery lithium, with an overall operating rate rising nearly 9 percentage points to 58% [2][8] - Despite the increase in production, the demand for lithium carbonate is expected to remain limited during the traditional off-season from June to August, with downstream purchasing primarily driven by immediate needs rather than stockpiling [2][10] Group 2: Electric Vehicle Sales and Impact - New energy vehicle sales in China have shown significant growth, with production and sales in the first five months of the year exceeding 10% year-on-year, indicating a stable upward trend in the automotive industry [3][5] - New energy vehicles accounted for 44% of total new car sales, with exports of new energy vehicles reaching 855,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 64.6% [3][5] Group 3: Supply Chain and Import Trends - Lithium ore imports have continued to grow, with April imports reaching 520,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 18%, primarily sourced from Australia, Zimbabwe, Brazil, and Nigeria [6][8] - Zimbabwe's government announced a ban on lithium ore exports starting in January 2027 to promote local refining industries, which is not expected to cause immediate shortages in the lithium carbonate market due to ample global lithium resources [6][7] Group 4: Price Trends and Market Outlook - The lithium price has been on a downward trend since March, with a potential equilibrium price around 58,000 yuan/ton based on supply and demand dynamics, indicating that prices may have reached a bottom [8][9] - Current market pressures stem from falling mineral prices and limited demand during the off-season, with expectations of continued inventory accumulation until August [9][10]