30年期债券标售，美债周四迎大考，5%收益率门槛成焦点

Group 1 - The upcoming $22 billion 30-year Treasury auction is seen as a critical test for the market, especially as the yield approaches a 20-year high [1] - The proposed tax reform by Trump is expected to increase the U.S. budget deficit by trillions, potentially leading to more bond issuance [1] - Investor demand for long-term U.S. debt has weakened, with higher yields being demanded as compensation, pushing the 30-year yield to 5.15%, the highest in nearly two decades [1][2] Group 2 - The 5% yield threshold has become a focal point for the market, attracting buyers as it is perceived as a ceiling before the auction [2] - There is a consensus among bond managers, including DoubleLine Capital and PIMCO, to favor shorter-duration U.S. Treasuries while reducing exposure to long-term bonds due to refinancing risks and the tax reform's impact [3] - Some analysts, like Guneet Dhingra from BNP Paribas, suggest that the current levels of 30-year Treasuries reflect worsening fiscal conditions and may rebound if auction demand is strong or deficit concerns ease [3]