初请数据超预期、核心PPI遇冷！美联储年内降息两次稳了？

Group 1 - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. reached 248,000 for the week ending June 7, marking the highest level since October 5, 2024, and exceeding the expected 240,000 [2] - Continuing jobless claims have risen to the highest level since the end of 2021, indicating that it is taking longer for unemployed individuals to find new jobs, which suggests a cooling labor market [2] - Following the release of these data, the U.S. dollar index fell to its lowest level in over three years, while spot gold prices surged to $3,390 per ounce [2] Group 2 - In May, non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000, lower than the 193,000 added in the same month last year, indicating a gradual loss of momentum in the labor market [4] - The May Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, below the expected 0.2%, while the year-on-year PPI was recorded at 2.6%, matching expectations [5] - Core PPI for May also showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, below the expected 0.3%, and a year-on-year increase of 3%, slightly below the expected 3.1% [5] Group 3 - Analysts are particularly focused on the PPI report as it includes components used to calculate the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure (PCE data) [6] - Areas of weakness in May included declines in airfare prices, investment management fees, and moderate healthcare costs [6]