锡：精矿供给低于预期与需求预增共振 面临中期上涨

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates that the adjustment phase for tin prices has likely ended, and the long-term upward trend that began in Q4 2022 is expected to continue based on macroeconomic and supply-demand factors [1][19]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Sentiment - Recent signals show a significant easing in the US-China tariff war, with important agreements reached during trade talks in Geneva and London, positively impacting global trade and economic conditions [2]. - China's manufacturing PMI for May recorded 49.5, a marginal increase, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activities, with production index rising to 50.7, suggesting acceleration in production [3]. Group 2: Tin Supply and Demand Factors - Tin supply is constrained due to lower-than-expected recovery in Myanmar's Wa State, with imports from Myanmar remaining at historically low levels of 1,000 to 3,000 tons per month since November 2024 [6]. - The Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a significant tin production area, is experiencing slow recovery due to local security issues, with current imports from this region around 3,000 tons [7]. - Domestic tin mining in China faces challenges due to declining ore grades and rising extraction costs, with regulatory actions aimed at curbing illegal mining impacting production [9]. - Processing fees for tin concentrate have hit record lows, which reflects tight supply conditions and has suppressed domestic refined tin output to below 15,000 tons per month [11]. - Both domestic and international tin inventories are in a destocking cycle, with LME tin inventories decreasing by nearly 50% since the end of last year [14]. Group 3: Demand Growth - Traditional applications of tin in electronics, home appliances, and chemicals are being supplemented by increased demand from the semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors, with global semiconductor sales projected to reach $627.6 billion in 2024, a 19.1% year-on-year increase [17]. - The semiconductor industry is in a recovery phase, with demand for tin solder materials expected to grow, and the correlation between LME tin prices and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is strong, indicating a close relationship between semiconductor market performance and tin demand [17].