美国5月PPI环比温和上涨0.1% 核心通胀降至近一年新低 美联储年内两次降息预期升温

Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. for May showed a modest increase, with core PPI reaching its lowest level since August 2024, indicating that tariffs have not significantly pressured consumer and business prices [1][3] Group 1: PPI Overview - The PPI rose by only 0.1% month-over-month in May, below economists' expectations of 0.2%. Core PPI also increased by 0.1%, with goods prices (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.2% and service prices by 0.1% [3][5] - The report reflects a continuation of the mild performance seen in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the past four months, suggesting that the impact of tariff increases on the American public has been relatively subdued so far [3][5] Group 2: Profit Margins and Price Trends - Wholesale and retail profit margins expanded in May, particularly in the vehicle and machinery wholesale sectors, following a contraction in April. This indicates that businesses are absorbing tariff costs without passing them on to consumers [3][5] - Food prices saw a slight increase of 0.1% after two months of decline, while energy costs remained stable. Intermediate demand processing goods costs showed minimal increases, and raw goods prices have declined for three consecutive months [5][6] Group 3: Specific Price Changes - The final demand services index rose by 0.1% in May, rebounding from a 0.4% decline in April, primarily due to a 0.4% increase in trade service profit margins. Notable increases were seen in mechanical and vehicle wholesale profit margins, which surged by 2.9% [5][6] - In the final demand goods category, prices increased by 0.2% in May, with tobacco products rising by 0.9%. Conversely, airline fuel prices dropped by 8.2% [5][6] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the PPI report, traders fully priced in the scenario of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year [9] - The dollar index fell approximately 20 points to 97.70, while U.S. stock futures saw a slight uptick, with the Nasdaq 100 futures narrowing their decline to 0.5% [10][11]