美豆、国内豆粕菜粕：6月供需有别，交易策略出炉

Core Viewpoint - The soybean market is experiencing fluctuations, with domestic soybean meal prices showing a rebound after an initial decline, driven by concerns over future supply tightness [1] Group 1: Market Overview - U.S. soybean quality rating reached 68% as of June 5, with old crop export inspection volume at 547,000 tons, historically high for this period [1] - Brazilian soybean crushing volume decreased to 5.16 million tons in March, attributed to weak domestic crushing profits and increased Chinese buying [1] - Argentine oil mills are facing shutdowns, potentially slowing domestic crushing growth and stabilizing end product prices, with an expected increase in soybean exports [1] Group 2: Domestic Supply and Demand - Domestic soybean crushing volume was 2.2446 million tons as of June 6, with an operating rate of 63.1% and soybean inventory at 6.1029 million tons, up 4.7% from the previous week [1] - Soybean meal inventory increased to 382,500 tons, up 28.36% from the previous week, indicating a supply build-up [1] - Domestic rapeseed meal demand is weakening, with a decrease in oil mill operating rates, but supply remains sufficient, leading to expected price fluctuations [1] Group 3: Trading Strategies - The market lacks macro guidance post U.S.-China negotiations, with ongoing concerns about supply uncertainty [1] - The trading strategy suggests limited short positions and recommends an arbitrage strategy involving M11 - 1, along with selling call options [1]