Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-06-12 22:42Core Viewpoint - The major expectation gap in the global macroeconomic landscape for the first half of 2025 is the disproof of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, influenced by factors such as the Deepseek moment, Trump's tariff impacts, and fiscal constraints in the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Narrative Shift - The narrative is shifting from "American exceptionalism" to "American denialism," with the global macroeconomic environment remaining stable overall, despite tariff disruptions affecting global industrial production and trade [2][3] - In the first quarter of 2025, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI remained above the 50 mark for three consecutive months, indicating expansion, but fell back to 49.8 in April [2] - The IMF has revised down its global GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from January, with the U.S. forecast lowered from 2.7% to 1.8% [2] Group 2: Economic Impact of Tariffs and Legislation - The tariff-induced economic shock is expected to be a central theme throughout the year, with a focus on macro data validation rather than negotiation processes [4] - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" primarily extends existing tax cuts, which may have limited economic stimulation effects, while increasing long-term debt supply pressure due to higher deficits [4] - The act includes approximately 80% of existing tax cut extensions and 20% of new tax measures, which may not fully offset tariff revenues [4] Group 3: Paradigm Shift in Asset Safety - The baseline assumption for the U.S. economy under current tariff levels is "slowing but not recession," with inflationary pressures and economic downturn risks being relatively balanced [5] - Bloomberg consensus anticipates that inflation rebound will last for about 2-3 quarters, with year-end PCE and core PCE inflation peaks expected at 3.1% and 3.3%, respectively [5] - The U.S. may have entered a phase of simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, driven by high inflation and twin deficits, which could undermine the perceived safety of U.S. assets [5][6]