资深央行记者：美联储降息的理由日益增多

Core Viewpoint - The latest economic data indicates that inflation pressures are easing more than expected, while the labor market may be deteriorating, strengthening the case for the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Economic Data and Inflation - Recent data shows that tariff revenues increased by approximately $15 billion from February to May, equating to 3% of total consumer spending, yet consumer prices did not rise correspondingly [2] - Prices for targeted tariff goods, such as clothing and new cars, actually decreased in May, raising questions about who is absorbing the tariff costs [2] - The core inflation rate, excluding food and energy, reached a four-year low of 2.8%, with the personal consumption expenditure price index close to its lowest level since the pandemic [3] Group 2: Labor Market Conditions - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising by 0.25 percentage points since January, potentially reaching 4.6% by the fourth quarter [4][5] - New unemployment insurance claims have surged in the past two weeks, indicating an increase in layoffs, despite May's job growth appearing healthy with 139,000 new positions [5] - The current interest rates remain 0.5 to 1.5 percentage points above what the Federal Reserve considers "neutral," suggesting that the tightening stance may no longer be justified given the shifting economic landscape [5]