国货美妆“一哥”，陷入“造假风波”

Core Viewpoint - The controversy surrounding Juzhibio, a leading domestic cosmetics company, stems from allegations of ingredient fraud, particularly regarding its flagship product, "Kefumei" collagen stick, which has been accused of having significantly lower collagen content than claimed [1][2][3] Group 1: Impact on Company Valuation - Juzhibio's stock price has dropped approximately 30%, from a peak of 87 HKD per share to around 60 HKD, resulting in a market capitalization decline from over 900 billion HKD to about 650 billion HKD [3][22] - The allegations of ingredient fraud have severely impacted Juzhibio's market trust and financial standing, leading to a significant loss of over 250 billion HKD in market value within a short period [22] Group 2: Competitive Dynamics - The allegations against Juzhibio are not merely a case of a blogger exposing fraud but are linked to competitive tensions with Huaxi Biological, which has openly supported the allegations and has a financial stake in the blogger's company [2][5][6] - The conflict between Juzhibio and Huaxi Biological represents a broader battle for market dominance in the domestic skincare industry, reminiscent of past rivalries in the sector [5][6] Group 3: Ingredient Controversy - The core of the dispute lies in the ingredient claims, particularly the presence and concentration of recombinant human collagen, which is a key selling point for Juzhibio's products [12][16] - The rise of the "ingredient-focused" consumer trend has shifted market dynamics, with consumers increasingly prioritizing the efficacy and transparency of product ingredients [14][15] Group 4: Financial and Operational Insights - Juzhibio's operational model is characterized by low research and development (R&D) investment, with R&D expenses for 2024 amounting to only 1.07 billion CNY, representing just 1.9% of total revenue [18] - In contrast, Huaxi Biological invests significantly more in R&D, with a proportion of 8.68%, highlighting a structural difference in their approaches to innovation and product development [18] Group 5: Marketing Strategies - Juzhibio has heavily relied on marketing, with sales and distribution expenses reaching 20.08 billion CNY in 2024, accounting for 36.3% of total revenue, which is 19 times its R&D spending [18][19] - The company's strategy includes partnerships with top influencers, such as Li Jiaqi, to enhance brand visibility and consumer engagement [19][20] Group 6: Valuation Concerns - Juzhibio's current rolling price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is approximately 29.5, which is significantly higher than the typical P/E ratio for consumer stocks, indicating potential overvaluation based on its growth narrative [21] - The ongoing "ingredient fraud" controversy poses a risk to Juzhibio's established trust and growth narrative, challenging its high valuation and market position [22]