每日投行/机构观点梳理（2025-06-12）

Group 1 - Oxford Economics warns that long-term U.S. asset sell-offs could undermine the dollar's status as a reserve currency, primarily driven by the impact of Trump's tariff policies rather than a loss of confidence in the dollar [1] - Morgan Stanley predicts an oversupply in the crude oil market in Q4, potentially extending to 2026, with Brent crude prices possibly dropping to around $50 per barrel by mid-2026 [2] - HSBC upgrades the U.S. stock market rating from neutral to overweight, citing renewed optimism around artificial intelligence and a weaker dollar as potential boosts [3] Group 2 - Reuters survey indicates that U.S. Treasury yields are expected to decline further as the market anticipates the Federal Reserve will resume rate cuts after a pause of over six months [4] - Capital Economics suggests that the decline in UK GDP supports the case for the Bank of England to cut rates in August, although concerns about recession may be alleviated by second-quarter data [5] - TD Securities reports that U.S. CPI data significantly exceeded market expectations, leading to a cautious steepening of the Treasury yield curve as investors factor in more rate cut expectations [6] Group 3 - CITIC Securities notes that new policy financial tools will accelerate fiscal efforts, with a scale of 500 billion yuan aimed at boosting project capital and investment [9] - Guotai Junan Securities upgrades its tactical allocation view on gold to overweight, citing the impact of Trump's tariff policies and geopolitical tensions as factors that enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [10] - Galaxy Securities highlights Amazon's testing of humanoid robots for delivery, indicating a potential acceleration in the commercialization of low-altitude economy [11]