东兴证券：关注交运基本面和政策调控带来变化 重视周期底部行业价格弹性

Core Viewpoint - The transportation sector faces both challenges and opportunities in the second half of the year, with a pessimistic market outlook for some cyclical industries presenting potential investment opportunities [1] Group 1: Express Delivery Sector - Intense price competition in the express delivery sector, particularly among leading companies Zhongtong and Yuantong, is likely to impact future pricing levels [2] - The overall performance of the express delivery industry has seen profit declines due to heightened price wars, with volume growth not fully offsetting the drop in per-package profitability [2] - The current low market expectations for the express delivery sector suggest it is at a cyclical bottom, but a shift towards "anti-involution" and high-quality development is anticipated, making it a sector worth monitoring [2] Group 2: Aviation Sector - Despite pressure on profits in the first quarter, the aviation industry is expected to rebalance supply and demand, aided by the Civil Aviation Administration's guidance [3] - The upcoming peak season is projected to show strong upward elasticity for airline stocks, with potential price increases driven by high load factors and effective supply management [3] - Current valuations for the aviation sector are near historical lows, indicating potential for recovery and profit improvement [3] Group 3: Highway Sector - The valuation of the highway sector in A-shares is relatively high, prompting a shift in investment focus towards Hong Kong stocks [4] - A-share prices for highway companies are trading at over a 50% premium compared to their H-share counterparts, with H-shares showing better performance year-to-date [4] - Long-term benefits from a declining interest rate environment are expected for the highway sector, which is characterized by stable earnings and a strong dividend payout [4]