巨富金业：地缘危机与降息预期共振，金价强势站上3400关口

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by a combination of geopolitical risks and expectations of monetary policy easing, leading to a breakthrough of key resistance levels in the gold market [1][3][4]. Geopolitical Risks - The situation in the Middle East has worsened due to Israel's airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, prompting Iran to threaten retaliation [3]. - The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, including drone attacks and military deployments in Eastern Europe, has increased geopolitical uncertainty, boosting demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3]. Monetary Policy Expectations - Weak economic data from the U.S. has strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts, with a projected cumulative cut of 50 basis points this year [4][5]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) data indicates a cooling inflationary pressure, contributing to the market's anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [4][5]. Technical Analysis - Gold has established a support level above $3,380, with a bullish "engulfing" pattern observed in recent trading sessions [6]. - The price has successfully broken through the $3,400 mark, indicating strong upward momentum, supported by technical indicators such as the RSI [8]. Trading Strategy - The combination of geopolitical tensions and monetary easing expectations is expected to drive gold prices higher, with a focus on the upcoming FOMC meeting for further policy guidance [11]. - A pullback to around $3,390 is seen as an ideal entry point for investors, with long-term structural support for gold prices anticipated from central bank purchases and de-dollarization trends [11].