黄金又涨了！多重风险推升避险情绪

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising international gold prices driven by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and increased demand from central banks, indicating a potential long-term upward trend in gold prices [1][2][3]. Group 1: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Geopolitical tensions, including the Middle East situation and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened market risk aversion, contributing to the rise in gold prices [1][2]. - Recent U.S. economic data, such as the decline in the ISM manufacturing and services PMI below the growth threshold and lower-than-expected CPI figures, have raised concerns about a potential economic downturn, which has favored gold [2]. - The market is experiencing mixed signals, with some institutional investors reducing their gold ETF holdings while speculators are increasing their net long positions, indicating differing views on gold's future [2][3]. Group 2: Demand and Central Bank Activity - Gold has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset for global central banks, driven by a surge in gold purchases and rising prices [3]. - As of May 2025, central bank gold reserves reached 7.383 million ounces, marking a continuous increase for seven months, which provides strong support for gold demand [3]. - The strategic value of gold as a hedge against stock and bond market volatility has increased, suggesting a long-term investment opportunity [3][4]. Group 3: Future Price Trends - Short-term gold price movements may be volatile due to potential changes in tariffs or geopolitical developments, but the long-term outlook remains positive [4][5]. - Factors supporting the long-term upward trend in gold prices include increasing economic uncertainty in the U.S., strong central bank demand for gold, and persistent geopolitical risks [4][5]. - The flexibility and variability of U.S. policies, along with ongoing global geopolitical risks, continue to sustain market demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5].